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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.