How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.